![]() The increase was broad based across age, education, and income groups. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now-increased by 1.7 percentage points to 36.2%, its highest level since February 2021. Mean unemployment expectations-or the mean probability that the U.S.Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth remained unchanged at 3.0% in March for the third consecutive month.The median one-year-ahead expected change in the cost of a college education decreased by 0.5 percentage point to 8.5%.* Expectations about year-ahead price changes were roughly flat for rent (at 10.2%) and medical care (at 9.6%), increased by 0.8 percentage point for gas prices (to 9.6%) and increased by 0.4 percentage point for food prices (to 9.6%).The measure, which has been elevated for the past year, remains well above its pre-pandemic reading of 3.0% in February 2020. The median expected change in home prices one year from now increased to 6.0% from 5.7%.At the medium-term horizon, median inflation uncertainty remained unchanged at a series high. Median inflation uncertainty-or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes-increased at the short-term horizon, reaching a new series high.Disagreement across respondents (as measured by the difference between the 75th and 25th percentiles of inflation expectations) increased at both horizons to new series highs. The decline in medium-term expectations was driven by respondents with no college education and with annual household incomes under $50,000. The increase in short-term expectations was broad-based across age, education, and income groups. Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations increased to a new series high of 6.6% from 6.0% in February, while median three-year ahead inflation expectations decreased to 3.7% from 3.8%.The main findings from the March 2022 Survey are: Labor market and income growth expectations receded somewhat, and respondents turned less optimistic about their year-ahead household's financial situation. Home price growth expectations ticked up, while year-ahead spending growth expectations increased to a new series high. NEW YORK-The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today released the March 2022 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows another increase in short-term inflation expectations, but a decline in medium-term inflation expectations. ![]()
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